Open-web future event prediction requires agents to distill reliable signals from noisy, redundant, and incomplete evidence. Existing retrieval/memory mechanisms directly feed retrieved information to agents or rely on simple memory functions such as storing and reusing prior information for prediction, leaving them insufficient for open-web forecasting. We propose to transform raw web evidence into structured memory before prediction, enabling agents to reason over distilled, question-specific evidence rather than noisy retrieval results. This paper presents ForeDreamer, a self-evolving dual-agent framework for managing memory over open-web evidence. ForeDreamer separates factual memory, a question-specific evidence state for the current forecast, from experiential memory, persistent agent experience accumulated across forecasting episodes. It uses a main agent for search and prediction, and a memory-processing subagent to convert search results into factual memory with dedicated tools. ForeDreamer further evolves experiential memory through two tracks, improving both forecasting decisions and factual-memory construction. Experiments on Prophet Arena and FutureX demonstrate the effectiveness of ForeDreamer.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) have recently attracted significant attention for their ability to enhance diversity, controllability, and parallelism. However, their non-sequential, bidirectionally masked generation makes quality assessment difficult, underscoring the need for effective self-evaluation. In this work, we propose DiSE, a simple yet effective self-evaluation confidence quantification method for dLLMs. DiSE quantifies confidence by computing the probability of regenerating the tokens in the entire generated sequence, given the full context. This method enables more efficient and reliable quality assessment by leveraging token regeneration probabilities, facilitating both likelihood estimation and robust uncertainty quantification. Building upon DiSE, we further introduce a flexible-length generation framework, which adaptively controls the sequence length based on the model’s self-assessment of its own output. We analyze and validate the feasibility of DiSE from the perspective of dLLM generalization, and empirically demonstrate that DiSE is positively correlated with both semantic coherence and answer accuracy. Extensive experiments on likelihood evaluation, uncertainty quantification, and flexible-length generation further confirm the effectiveness of the proposed DiSE.