LLM agents are increasingly used for live forecasting, where they retrieve up-to-date information and produce estimates for unresolved future events. However, current agentic forecasting often relies on implicit narrative aggregation: agents collect evidence, discuss it in prose, and often assign a probability without an explicit update path from evidence to forecast. This limits both forecasting accuracy and auditability. We propose AuditForecast, an agentic scaffold for structured probabilistic forecasting. AuditForecast first anchors the forecast with a suitable quantitative baseline model, uses model-guided data retrieval to derive a base probability, and then applies situational factor updates outside the model’s scope through mechanical aggregation in odds space. This turns forecasting from a prose-based judgment into a structured process with explicit intermediate objects. Across multiple live forecasting benchmarks, AuditForecast improves forecasting accuracy and calibration relative to strong agentic baselines, surpasses market-implied references in several settings, and outperforms substantially more expensive deep-research agents while remaining Pareto-dominant in the cost–accuracy tradeoff. Beyond performance gains, AuditForecast produces an auditable forecasting report that makes forecast construction explicit and supports systematic post hoc analysis.

While large language models have demonstrated exceptional performance across a wide range of tasks, they remain susceptible to hallucinations – generating plausible yet factually incorrect contents. Existing methods to mitigating such risk often rely on sampling multiple full-length generations, which introduces significant response latency and becomes ineffective when the model consistently produces hallucinated outputs with high confidence. To address these limitations, we introduce Monitoring Decoding (MD), a novel framework that dynamically monitors the generation process and selectively applies in-process interventions, focusing on revising crucial tokens responsible for hallucinations. Instead of waiting until completion of multiple full-length generations, we identify hallucination-prone tokens during generation using a monitor function, and further refine these tokens through a tree-based decoding strategy. This approach ensures an enhanced factual accuracy and coherence in the generated output while maintaining efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate that MD consistently outperforms self-consistency-based approaches in both effectiveness and efficiency, achieving higher factual accuracy while significantly reducing computational overhead.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performances in complex text generation tasks. However, the contribution of the input prompt to the generated content still remains obscure to humans, underscoring the necessity of understanding the causality between input and output pairs. Existing works for providing prompt-specific explanation often confine model output to be classification or next-word prediction. Few initial attempts aiming to explain the entire language generation often treat input prompt texts independently, ignoring their combinatorial effects on the follow-up generation. In this study, we introduce a counterfactual explanation framework based on joint prompt attribution, JoPA, which aims to explain how a few prompt texts collaboratively influences the LLM’s complete generation. Particularly, we formulate the task of prompt attribution for generation interpretation as a combinatorial optimization problem, and introduce a probabilistic algorithm to search for the casual input combination in the discrete space. We define and utilize multiple metrics to evaluate the produced explanations, demonstrating both the faithfulness and efficiency of our framework.