2026

Multi-agent debate improves LLM reasoning, yet agreement is not evidence of correctness. When agents converge on a wrong answer through social reinforcement, consensus stopping commits that error to automated action with no recourse. We introduce Conformal Social Choice, a post-hoc layer that converts debate outputs into calibrated act-versus-escalate decisions. Verbalized probability distributions from heterogeneous agents are aggregated via a linear opinion pool and calibrated with split conformal prediction, yielding fixed-round marginal coverage: at any pre-specified round, the correct answer is included with probability ≥1-𝛼, without assumptions on individual model calibration. A hierarchical action policy maps singletons to autonomous action and larger sets to human escalation. Across eight MMLU-Pro domains and two additional benchmarks, fixed-round coverage stays close to target. The key finding is not that debate becomes more accurate, but that the conformal layer makes its failures actionable: at the final round, 81.9% of wrong-consensus cases are flagged by non-singleton sets at 𝛼=0.05. Separately, among cases that reach a singleton before the final round, accuracy reaches 90.0–96.8% on MMLU-Pro (up to 22.1pp above consensus stopping): a selection effect, not a reasoning improvement. Simple probability- and entropy-threshold rules attain comparable interception; conformal’s distinct value is a finite-sample fixed-round coverage guarantee together with explicit candidate sets for escalation. Adaptive first-singleton stopping is evaluated empirically and not covered by this guarantee.

2024

Accurate evaluation of financial question answering (QA) systems necessitates a comprehensive dataset encompassing diverse question types and contexts. However, current financial QA datasets lack scope diversity and question complexity. This work introduces FinTextQA, a novel dataset for long-form question answering (LFQA) in finance. FinTextQA comprises 1,262 high-quality, source-attributed QA pairs extracted and selected from finance textbooks and government agency websites.Moreover, we developed a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG)-based LFQA system, comprising an embedder, retriever, reranker, and generator. A multi-faceted evaluation approach, including human ranking, automatic metrics, and GPT-4 scoring, was employed to benchmark the performance of different LFQA system configurations under heightened noisy conditions. The results indicate that: (1) Among all compared generators, Baichuan2-7B competes closely with GPT-3.5-turbo in accuracy score; (2) The most effective system configuration on our dataset involved setting the embedder, retriever, reranker, and generator as Ada2, Automated Merged Retrieval, Bge-Reranker-Base, and Baichuan2-7B, respectively; (3) models are less susceptible to noise after the length of contexts reaching a specific threshold. The dataset is publicly available at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/GPS-Lab/FinTextQA.