Modal-adaptive Knowledge-enhanced Graph-based Financial Prediction from Monetary Policy Conference Calls with LLM

Kun Ouyang, Yi Liu, Shicheng Li, Ruihan Bao, Keiko Harimoto, Xu Sun


Abstract
Financial prediction from Monetary Policy Conference (MPC) calls is a new yet challenging task, which targets at predicting the price movement and volatility for specific financial assets by analyzing multimodal information including text, video, and audio. Although the existing work has achieved great success using cross-modal transformer blocks, it overlooks the potential external financial knowledge, the varying contributions of different modalities to financial prediction, as well as the innate relations among different financial assets. To tackle these limitations, we propose a novel Modal-Adaptive kNowledge-enhAnced Graph-basEd financial pRediction scheme, named MANAGER. Specifically, MANAGER resorts to FinDKG to obtain the external related knowledge for the input text. Meanwhile, MANAGER adopts BEiT-3 and Hidden-unit BERT (HuBERT) to extract the video and audio features, respectively. Thereafter, MANAGER introduces a novel knowledge-enhanced cross-modal graph that fully characterizes the semantic relations among text, external knowledge, video and audio, to adaptively utilize the information in different modalities, with ChatGLM2 as the backbone. Extensive experiments on a publicly available dataset Monopoly verify the superiority of our model over cutting-edge methods.
Anthology ID:
2024.finnlp-1.7
Volume:
Proceedings of the Joint Workshop of the 7th Financial Technology and Natural Language Processing, the 5th Knowledge Discovery from Unstructured Data in Financial Services, and the 4th Workshop on Economics and Natural Language Processing
Month:
May
Year:
2024
Address:
Torino, Italia
Editors:
Chung-Chi Chen, Xiaomo Liu, Udo Hahn, Armineh Nourbakhsh, Zhiqiang Ma, Charese Smiley, Veronique Hoste, Sanjiv Ranjan Das, Manling Li, Mohammad Ghassemi, Hen-Hsen Huang, Hiroya Takamura, Hsin-Hsi Chen
Venue:
FinNLP
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
59–69
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2024.finnlp-1.7
DOI:
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Kun Ouyang, Yi Liu, Shicheng Li, Ruihan Bao, Keiko Harimoto, and Xu Sun. 2024. Modal-adaptive Knowledge-enhanced Graph-based Financial Prediction from Monetary Policy Conference Calls with LLM. In Proceedings of the Joint Workshop of the 7th Financial Technology and Natural Language Processing, the 5th Knowledge Discovery from Unstructured Data in Financial Services, and the 4th Workshop on Economics and Natural Language Processing, pages 59–69, Torino, Italia. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Modal-adaptive Knowledge-enhanced Graph-based Financial Prediction from Monetary Policy Conference Calls with LLM (Ouyang et al., FinNLP 2024)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2024.finnlp-1.7.pdf