Accurate trading volume prediction is essential for portfolio optimization, market regulation, and financial risk control. An effective method for predicting trading volume involves building a graph to model relations between stock. Recent research has enhanced these models by integrating stock news to improve forecasting ability. However, existing approaches primarily integrate news data as auxiliary features for nodes in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), overlooking the relational information between stocks embedded in news. To address this, we propose LLM-Enhanced Dynamic Graph Neural Network (LED-GNN), a framework that constructs dynamic graphs using inter-stock relationships extracted from news via a large language model (LLM)-centered pipeline, combined with graphs learned from historical price-volume data. A dynamic GNN then processes these graphs to generate predictions. Evaluated on a real-world dataset, TOPIX, with Reuters Financial News, LED-GNN consistently outperformed all baseline models, achieving a 2% improvement over the strongest baseline.

Financial sentiment analysis plays a pivotal role in the financial domain. However, the task remains challenging due to the nuanced nature of financial sentiment, the need for high interpretability, and the scarcity of high-quality datasets. To address these issues, we leverage recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) and propose to adapt proxy tuning for financial sentiment analysis. Proxy tuning efficiently transfers knowledge from a pre-trained expert model to a controllable base model by incorporating logit differences, steering the base model toward the desired sentiment representation. Our method offers significant advantages: (1) it is training-free, reducing computational demands and data dependency; (2) it achieves promising performance, with a 36.67% improvement over the base model and over 90% of the tuned model’s performance; and (3) it is highly adaptable, functioning in a plug-and-play manner without requiring access to model architectures or weights. These results demonstrate the potential of proxy tuning as an efficient and practical solution for financial sentiment analysis in data-scarce scenarios.

Financial prediction from Monetary Policy Conference (MPC) calls is a new yet challenging task, which targets at predicting the price movement and volatility for specific financial assets by analyzing multimodal information including text, video, and audio. Although the existing work has achieved great success using cross-modal transformer blocks, it overlooks the potential external financial knowledge, the varying contributions of different modalities to financial prediction, as well as the innate relations among different financial assets. To tackle these limitations, we propose a novel Modal-Adaptive kNowledge-enhAnced Graph-basEd financial pRediction scheme, named MANAGER. Specifically, MANAGER resorts to FinDKG to obtain the external related knowledge for the input text. Meanwhile, MANAGER adopts BEiT-3 and Hidden-unit BERT (HuBERT) to extract the video and audio features, respectively. Thereafter, MANAGER introduces a novel knowledge-enhanced cross-modal graph that fully characterizes the semantic relations among text, external knowledge, video and audio, to adaptively utilize the information in different modalities, with ChatGLM2 as the backbone. Extensive experiments on a publicly available dataset Monopoly verify the superiority of our model over cutting-edge methods.

Previous work has demonstrated the viability of applying deep learning techniques in the financial area. Recently, the task of stock embedding learning has been drawing attention from the research community, which aims to represent the characteristics of stocks with distributed vectors that can be used in various financial analysis scenarios. Existing approaches for learning stock embeddings either require expert knowledge, or mainly focus on the textual part of information corresponding to individual temporal movements. In this paper, we propose to model stock properties as the combination of internal attributes and relational attributes, which takes into consideration both the time-invariant properties of individual stocks and their movement patterns in relation to the market. To learn the two types of attributes from financial news and transaction data, we design several training objectives based on contrastive learning to extract and separate the long-term and temporary information in the data that are able to counter the inherent randomness of the stock market. Experiments and further analyses on portfolio optimization reveal the effectiveness of our method in extracting comprehensive stock information from various data sources.

Considering event structure information has proven helpful in text-based stock movement prediction. However, existing works mainly adopt the coarse-grained events, which loses the specific semantic information of diverse event types. In this work, we propose to incorporate the fine-grained events in stock movement prediction. Firstly, we propose a professional finance event dictionary built by domain experts and use it to extract fine-grained events automatically from finance news. Then we design a neural model to combine finance news with fine-grained event structure and stock trade data to predict the stock movement. Besides, in order to improve the generalizability of the proposed method, we design an advanced model that uses the extracted fine-grained events as the distant supervised label to train a multi-task framework of event extraction and stock prediction. The experimental results show that our method outperforms all the baselines and has good generalizability.

Incorporating related text information has proven successful in stock market prediction. However, it is a huge challenge to utilize texts in the enormous forex (foreign currency exchange) market because the associated texts are too redundant. In this work, we propose a BERT-based Hierarchical Aggregation Model to summarize a large amount of finance news to predict forex movement. We firstly group news from different aspects: time, topic and category. Then we extract the most crucial news in each group by the SOTA extractive summarization method. Finally, we conduct interaction between the news and the trade data with attention to predict the forex movement. The experimental results show that the category based method performs best among three grouping methods and outperforms all the baselines. Besides, we study the influence of essential news attributes (category and region) by statistical analysis and summarize the influence patterns for different currency pairs.