The first 24 hours’ medication plan is critical to patients with serious or life-threatening illnesses and injuries. An appropriate medication can result in a lower mortality, a shorter length stay and a higher APACHE score. However, in clinical practice, the medication plan is often error-prone, especially when a decision must be made quickly for life-threatening situations in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Therefore, predicting the effectiveness of the first 24 hours’ medication plan is of great importance in assisting doctors to make proper decisions. Existing effectiveness prediction works usually focus on one specific medicine, one specific disease, or one specific lab test, making it hard to extend to general medicines and diseases in hospital/ICU scenarios. In this paper, we propose to predict medication effectiveness of the first 24 hours in hospital/ICU based on patients’ information. Specifically, we use a knowledge enhanced module to incorporate external knowledge about medications and a medical feature learning module to determine the interaction between diagnosis and medications. To handle the data imbalance problem, we further optimize the proposed model with a contrastive loss. Extensive experimental results on a public dataset show that our model can significantly outperform state-of-the-art methods.

Though pre-trained language models achieve notable success in many applications, it’s usually controversial for over-confident predictions. Specifically, the in-distribution (ID) miscalibration and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection are main concerns. Recently, some works based on energy-based models (EBM) have shown great improvements on both ID calibration and OOD detection for images. However, it’s rarely explored in natural language understanding tasks due to the non-differentiability of text data which makes it more difficult for EBM training. In this paper, we first propose a triple-hybrid EBM which combines the benefits of classifier, conditional generative model and marginal generative model altogether. Furthermore, we leverage contrastive learning to approximately train the proposed model, which circumvents the non-differentiability issue of text data. Extensive experiments have been done on GLUE and six other multiclass datasets in various domains. Our model outperforms previous methods in terms of ID calibration and OOD detection by a large margin while maintaining competitive accuracy.