DialogueGAT: A Graph Attention Network for Financial Risk Prediction by Modeling the Dialogues in Earnings Conference Calls

Yunxin Sang, Yang Bao


Abstract
Financial risk prediction is an essential task for risk management in capital markets. While traditional prediction models are built based on the hard information of numerical data, recent studies have shown that the soft information of verbal cues in earnings conference calls is significant for predicting market risk due to its less constrained fashion and direct interaction between managers and analysts. However, most existing models mainly focus on extracting useful semantic information from the textual conference call transcripts but ignore their subtle yet important information of dialogue structures. To bridge this gap, we develop a graph attention network called DialogueGAT for financial risk prediction by simultaneously modeling the speakers and their utterances in dialogues in conference calls. Different from previous studies, we propose a new method for constructing the graph of speakers and utterances in a dialogue, and design contextual attention at both speaker and utterance levels for disentangling their effects on the downstream prediction task. For model evaluation, we extend an existing dataset of conference call transcripts by adding the dialogue structure and speaker information. Empirical results on our dataset of S&P1500 companies demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model over competitive baselines from the extant literature.
Anthology ID:
2022.findings-emnlp.117
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2022
Month:
December
Year:
2022
Address:
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Editors:
Yoav Goldberg, Zornitsa Kozareva, Yue Zhang
Venue:
Findings
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
1623–1633
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2022.findings-emnlp.117
DOI:
10.18653/v1/2022.findings-emnlp.117
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Yunxin Sang and Yang Bao. 2022. DialogueGAT: A Graph Attention Network for Financial Risk Prediction by Modeling the Dialogues in Earnings Conference Calls. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2022, pages 1623–1633, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
DialogueGAT: A Graph Attention Network for Financial Risk Prediction by Modeling the Dialogues in Earnings Conference Calls (Sang & Bao, Findings 2022)
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PDF:
https://aclanthology.org/2022.findings-emnlp.117.pdf
Video:
 https://aclanthology.org/2022.findings-emnlp.117.mp4