The effectiveness of large language models (LLMs) is not only measured by their ability to generate accurate outputs but also by their calibration—how well their confidence scores reflect the probability of their outputs being correct. While unsupervised pre-training has been shown to yield LLMs with well-calibrated conditional probabilities, recent studies have shown that after fine-tuning with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), the calibration of these models degrades significantly. In this work, we introduce Adaptive Temperature Scaling (ATS), a post-hoc calibration method that predicts a temperature scaling parameter for each token prediction. The predicted temperature values adapt based on token-level features and are fit over a standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) dataset. The adaptive nature of ATS addresses the varying degrees of calibration shift that can occur after RLHF fine-tuning. ATS improves calibration by over 10-50% across three downstream natural language evaluation benchmarks compared to prior calibration methods and does not impede performance improvements from RLHF.

Large language models encode impressively broad world knowledge in their parameters. However, the knowledge in static language models falls out of date, limiting the model’s effective “shelf life.” While online fine-tuning can reduce this degradation, we find that naively fine-tuning on a stream of documents leads to a low level of information uptake. We hypothesize that online fine-tuning does not sufficiently attend to important information. That is, the gradient signal from important tokens representing factual information is drowned out by the gradient from inherently noisy tokens, suggesting that a dynamic, context-aware learning rate may be beneficial. We therefore propose learning which tokens to upweight. We meta-train a small, autoregressive model to reweight the language modeling loss for each token during online fine-tuning, with the objective of maximizing the out-of-date base question-answering model’s ability to answer questions about a document after a single weighted gradient step. We call this approach Context-aware Meta-learned Loss Scaling (CaMeLS). Across three different distributions of documents, our experiments find that CaMeLS provides substantially improved information uptake on streams of thousands of documents compared with standard fine-tuning and baseline heuristics for reweighting token losses.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model’s conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

While large pre-trained language models are powerful, their predictions often lack logical consistency across test inputs. For example, a state-of-the-art Macaw question-answering (QA) model answers <i>Yes</i> to <i>Is a sparrow a bird?</i> and <i>Does a bird have feet?</i> but answers <i>No</i> to <i>Does a sparrow have feet?</i>. To address this failure mode, we propose a framework, Consistency Correction through Relation Detection, or <b>ConCoRD</b>, for boosting the consistency and accuracy of pre-trained NLP models using pre-trained natural language inference (NLI) models without fine-tuning or re-training. Given a batch of test inputs, ConCoRD samples several candidate outputs for each input and instantiates a factor graph that accounts for both the model’s belief about the likelihood of each answer choice in isolation and the NLI model’s beliefs about pair-wise answer choice compatibility. We show that a weighted MaxSAT solver can efficiently compute high-quality answer choices under this factor graph, improving over the raw model’s predictions. Our experiments demonstrate that ConCoRD consistently boosts accuracy and consistency of off-the-shelf closed-book QA and VQA models using off-the-shelf NLI models, notably increasing accuracy of LXMERT on ConVQA by 5% absolute. See the project website (https://ericmitchell.ai/emnlp-2022-concord/) for code and data.